Bookmakers have a built-in “House Advantage” in their odds

If you aren’t already aware, bookmakers have a built-in “House Advantage” in their odds. Most bookies give themselves around 5% profit margin. This means that on average, they stand to win about $5 on every $100 that their customers bet.

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Having multiple bookmakers allow you to choose the best odds for each game, bringing the House Advantage down to 1.5% or lower. Now you only need to be slightly smarter than the House to turn a profit.

Home Win nor Away Win dipping below 2.0

This may seem obvious enough, but tends to be neglected. Especially useful for beginners who have little to no knowledge of soccer. How do you spot games that will finish all even? Well, look out for matches where the market can’t seem to decide who’s going to come out victorious. In this case, the odds for both teams to win will be pretty close, with neither a Home Win nor Away Win dipping below 2.0.

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This is usually the first step I teach my clients and readers of my betting system book. It’s easy to be overwhelmed by the hundreds of matches on offer daily. So when you are short of time and don’t have hours to spend on match analysis, simply filter out potential draws using this step (time needed: 30 seconds).

Regardless of the presence of dirty tricks or manipulation

In some lower-tier leagues, teams are notorious for covert (or even blatant) match-fixing. These tend to occur toward the end of the season when there’s nothing left to play for. For teams that are comfortably positioned in mid-table (not fighting for European qualifications or struggling against relegation), the motivation is all but lost. Some of the star players may just be looking to avoid injuries as they have an eye on a high profile transfer in the new season.

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The temptation to “throw away” games is even present in certain top flight leagues. Italy tend to have that reputation as being a hot bed for match-fixing.

Regardless of the presence of dirty tricks or manipulation, look out for mid-table teams at the end of the season. Specifically, look out for games between two teams who BOTH have nothing much at stake to play for.

Don’t neglect the marginal advantage playing

Weak(er) teams playing at home are often happy to settle for a draw. Especially at home grounds that are notoriously difficult for even the strongest of away teams.

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Don’t neglect the marginal advantage playing on home soil brings. Whenever you check the current form and league table, make sure you sort the data according to “Home” and “Away” performances. I like to pay attention to their respective Home/Away Goal Difference too.

Do the same when checking out the past results history between the two teams.

these out-of-the-ordinary leagues

As I have alluded to in the past, certain soccer/football leagues in the world have a higher propensity for draws. Don’t be mistaken, these out-of-the-ordinary leagues (and teams) change every season. So do not treat historical data as the gospel!

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In fact, trends may change halfway through the season. Especially after mid-season signings in the January transfer window and managerial changes. Whenever a team goes on an incredible run of draws and then fire the manager, do NOT assume the same trend will continue with a new manager. Always observe what happens in the new coach’s first few games in charge.

potential draws to bet on is to look at the 1X2 odds

Sure, the first thing we all do when looking for potential draws to bet on is to look at the 1X2 odds. The lower the odds for a draw, the higher the possibility of it happening. At least the implied probability according to the bookies. But take into consideration the odds for *Under 2.5 goals* as well. It’s a pretty good signal for low-scoring games.

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Statistically, soccer matches that are low-scoring are much more likely to end up in draws. And in the long run, you will increase your winning ratio by focusing on games that are going to have less goals.

when it comes to spotting a potential match

In my book, I go into details about why I ONLY bet on draws (1X2 betting) out of dozens of betting options. But suffice to say, you may already have some hints of how profitable it can be — if you have arrived on this page via Google Search. Mathematical David Sumpter goes as far as to say that backing draws was “the main source of [his] profits”, calling it a bias in the market.

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So back to the purpose of this article. Along the way, my team and I have discovered certain reliable patterns that you must know if you want to predict draw results in soccer. What are some important “red flags” when it comes to spotting a potential match that is going to end up in a tie?

Here are 6 Top Tips (+ 1 SUPER IMPORTANT CAVEAT) to pay attention to when wagering on the draw.

how to win soccer bets by betting on draws

Developing a Profitable Soccer Betting System
(how to win soccer bets by betting on draws)

Over the past year, I have led an exclusive group of soccer bettors to beat the bookies by betting on draws in various football leagues around the world. European, Asian, South American football leagues… you name it. All we do is bet on draws!

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Using my uniquely formulated soccer betting system, we have consistently made unprecedented levels of profits. In terms of ROI, it’s simply CRAZY.

Armed with the single-minded focus of predicting draws, we have developed a truly profitable soccer betting system based entirely on draws. Here’s a glimpse of how we ended a good week of betting with a net profit of $1,308.